NATIONAL WILDFIRE COORDINATING GROUP
Fire Weather Working Team Meeting
November 15, 1999
Tallahassee, Florida

1. ATTENDEES

Team Members

Gerry Day

Larry Bradshaw

Mike Wallace

Chris Fontana

Deborah Holle

Miles Knight

Pete Guilbert

Marlena Hovorka

Don Motanic (NWCG Liaison)

Technical Advisors

Phil Sielaff

Paul Stokols

Visitors

John Stivers, USFS Reg 8

Gary Curcio , N.C. Div of Forest Resources

Paul Duval, NWS, Tallahassee

Jim Paul, Georgia Forestry Commission

Anita Dye, NWS, Tallahassee

Mike Edmonston, NWS Tallahassee

Don Price, USFS Reg 8

Daniel Chan Georgia Forestry Commission

Scott Goodrick, Florida State Div of Forestry

Jim Brenner, Florida State Div of Forestry

Mark Barbo, BLM/NIFC

2. MEETING NOTES

November 2, 1999

WelcomeMike Long, Assistant Division Director, Florida State Division of Forestry Fire weather critical in Florida. Florida has hired a fire weather meteorologist and is using the MM5 model to provide automated spot forecasts. Need to improve confidence factor between the field and NWS. The state of Florida needs more specific small scale weather products.

New MembersGerry introduced news members, Pete Guilbert, California Dept of Forestry and Fire Protection, is the new western states representative. Richard Bahr is the new NPS representative, he was represented at this meeting by Marlena Hovorka.

AgendaDiscussed agenda and added the following items.Deployment of Fire RAWS during 1999Phil. –Preliminary gridded NFDRS indicesLarry. –Imet standardsChris. Agency needs on IMET deployments with type II teams or teams that don’t have FBANsPaul.

Don MotanicNWCG updateHanded out minutes of the NWCG meeting that was held in Boston in October. Don also handed out and discussed the NWCG Vision Statement. The working teams need to explore how they relate to each other and what areas, if any, they can work together on. The FWWT budget was approved. The FWWT might look at organizing items brought to it into three areas, action, informational, and emerging issues.

Gerry DayFWWT Budget and Work Plan for FY00. Gerry handed out the budget and our proposed work plan. We need top provide NWCG with a Strategic Plan for the next 3 years by 12/1/99. There were many ideas expressed on what this plan should look like. Gerry, Larry, and Pete will have a draft available by Thursday (11/4/99).

Update on NWS Fire Weather Action PlanPaul StokolsBy 2/1/00 all NWS offices east of Rockies will be doing fire weather. Fire weather spinup continues, Paul provided a current matrix to be included in the minutes. Transition going slower in the west. Build 6 will not be done and therefore the 37 positions will become permanent. The question arose is with these changes should the "Fire Weather Strategy" be updated. Paul went over the Fire Weather Action List for FY99. The National Agreement is still not signed, but should be signed before our next meeting. Paul will provide us with a copy of the agreement before NWS Director Kelly signs it. The NWS will have a standard fire weather format(s) by AWIPS Build 5.1 these formats will be "zone (narrative)" and "matrix". These formats will be used in a test basis next year. Verification program is being developed. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Fire Weather Outlook will be operational next year. Paul handed out and discussed "Fire Weather Actions Beyond FY99". The NWS is undergoing a reorganization and Paul is trying to get additional staff support. Statistics for 1999IMET dispatches were provided the group. There was a discussion on how to tract availability of IMETs. Paul briefed the group on changes expected during the next year and years to come. Bonnie Mason, Patti Hirami, and Paul are developing a system to gather user feedback. Paul will provide a writeup from the Product Development Meeting that was held in Boulder.

IMET DeploymentPaul StokolsWhat criteria do the users have to determine when a meteorologist is ordered? The NWS is concerned about IMETs on fires with Type 2 teams or teams that don’t have FBANs. The NWS perceives an increase in IMET use by type 2 and nonFBAN teams. After a short discussion it was decided that these concerns should be addressed first at the local level. This issue should also be coordinated with the fire behavior community.

IMET StandardsChrisThere needs to be some type of national standard for IMETS. This will be needed as states and other federal agencies hire IMETS. There was no recommended action on this.

Wednesday November 3, 1999

NonFederal/NonWildfire PolicyJim Brenner Florida Div of Forestry, asked Paul Stokols if the policy had changed. Jim noted that the NWS policy in the western U.S. was different than in the rest of the U.S. The eastern and southern states would like to have the NWS in their areas adopt the western U.S. positoin. Paul said there was no change and that the west would probably continue with a more liberal interpretation..

Scott GoodrickFlorida Div of ForestryFire Management Information SystemDoing several projects, KBDI index based on NEXRAD. Forecasts done using MM5 which is run at 16 KM with 23 levels. Products are General Forecasts, Smoke Management Forecasts, Danger Rating (NFDRS and Canadian). Spot Forecasts are internet based with user input provided. In the future the MM5 will be run at 4KM and add automated weather stations.

Jim BrennerDOFPrescribed Fire is an important part of the fire management program. Forecasting where smoke will go from burns is very important. Visibility reduction is the main problem, especially as it relates to traffic accidents. Burning is done near homes and communities. Smoke/Plume forecasts are done for prescribed fires and wildfires. Jim feels the states aren’t involved when changes are made in the fire weather program.

Mike EdmonstonNWS TallahasseeMAR spinup continuing with full spinup now occurring. Until there is a national format there will be differences in the forecasts.

Jim Paul and Daniel ChanGeorgia Forestry Commission Daniel Chan is the state meteorologist that provides spot forecasts to state and private. Jim Paul has developed a system that uses NWS data/products (FOUS) to generate automated forecasts. These include standard weather variables and also smoke management. Georgia is considering buying a NOAAPORT. Federal agencies in Georgia use the NWS, state and private use forecasts issued by the state..

John StiversUSFS Reg 8Overall things have worked well with the NWS. Prescribed fire acres have doubled and are continuing to rise. Smoke dispersion modeling is problem in mountainous terrain. Will continue to need better weather information to properly forecast smoke intrusions.

Gary CurcioNorth Carolina, Division of ForestryThe state is responsible for 14 million acres. The DOF uses the fire weather forecasts for things other than fire. The state as dealt with 1 NWS office and will now deal with 7. Some concerns about accuracy and would like forecasts early during fire season. Spot forecast availability is a problem because of the NWS nonfederal/nonwildfire policy. Gary handed out a chart that correlated certain wind profiles with major fires. Gary also asked why the NWS did not provide the same technical papers to the eastern fire weather forecasters that were available in the west.

Miles KnightSouth Carolina Forestry CommissionMiles handed out a paper from the Savannah River Technology Center entitled "Providing Meteorological Information For Controlled Burns At The Savannah River Site."

Spot Forecast CommitteeChrisThe report from the spot forecast committee was discussed. It was decided that this report was not ready for release. Mike Wallace and Chris will develop the final verision.

Fire Danger Working TeamGary CurcioGoing through the transition period from advisory group to working team. The team is doing a WIMS functionality Improvement Survey. The committee is trying to increase use of NFDRS by the field. There needs to be better control or certification of NFDRS software being disseminated by private vendors. Some NWS offices are experimenting with systems to replace the NFDRS point forecasts. The NWS accuracy standards are not as stringent as the NFDRS standards established in the early 1970’s. The issue of accuracy needs to be addressed. Gary provided several handouts to the team.

 

Thursday November 4, 1999

Draft Strategic PlanGerryThe strategic plan was reviewed. Phil, Larry, and Gerry will look at the issue of agency owned weather stations to support fire agency operations and provide necessary information to fire weather forecasters. They will prepare a white paper for our January meeting. The strategic plan for the next 3 years was approved. Larry and Don will develop a general timeline to be attached to the plan and forwarded to the NWCG. The FWWT will develop specific work plans at the next meeting.

NFDRS Weather Station Standards Task GroupPhilThere is a package ready to go to the field for review. Gerry will send this package to each Geographic Area Boards, NWS, Agency heads, and state and private. The report will also be posted on the NWCG web page. Responses will be due by 1/14/00 and will go to Gerry and then summarized and reported back to the group at the next meeting.

Roles and Responsibilities of the AgenciesGerryThe local, geographic, and national responsibilities that we came up with at ABQ was handed out. Paul Stokols, Bonnie Mason, and Patti Hirami(USFS) were tasked by Jose Cruz(USFS) to come with a way to get feedback and resolve problems. The first draft of this was handed out to the team. Paul, Bonnie, and Patti will continue to develop their process and try to tie it into the roles and responsibilities developed by the FWWT. Gerry will contact Harry Croft to assure that the USFS efforts are tied to the FWWT efforts. This will also be included in Goal #1 of our Strategic Plan.

Geographic Area Fire Weather Points of Contact (FWWT Liaison)GerryThis is a follow up from our ABQ meeting. Gerry handed out correspondence from the Eastern area about their fire weather program and letters from the NWS Western Region concerning the transfer of services in Arizona. Team members should come to the next meeting prepared to discuss the package provided by the NWS.

Geographic Area	Contact Liaison
Southern	Miles
Eastern	Bonnie
Rocky Mtn/West Great Basin	Mike
Southwest	Bob
Eastern Great Basin/North Rocky	Larry
California	Chris
Pacific NW/Alaska	Gerry

 

Circuit BreakersGerryThis was proposed by the NWCG at our ABQ meeting. The team agreed that this will be done as we develop our feedback and monitoring mechanisms. This item will be addressed again at the next meeting in context of the project Paul, Patti, and Bonnie are doing.

Preliminary gridded NFDRS indicesLarryProject between the NWS and Missoula Fire Lab to automate NFDRS forecasts, using the NWS ETA model. Temperature forecasts are good, but RH and Wind forecasts are under forecast.

Casa Grande BurnMarlenaThe Casa Grande Burn escape resulted in a fire shelter deployment. There were several finding by the review team. One of these finding addressed the weather support provided by the NWS Midland WFO. The group was given the Interagency Investigation Report and a issue paper prepared by Dick Bahr entitled Inconsistency in Fire Weather Operating Plans. Marlena will brief the NPS on what has gone on at this meeting, if further action is needed by this team, a formal request will be made to NWCG. Paul will take the report to the NWS and assure that problems identified in the report are not occurring in other areas.

Fire Weather Operating PlansThe Casa Grande discussion lead into a discussion of Fire Weather Operating Plans. Gerry had asked Paul to provide him copies of the plans as they were done. However, so far Gerry had received none. Further discussion revealed that in some areas the NWS was preparing the Operations Plan without user input. Paul will make sure that the NWS involves the fire agencies when developing an Operations Plan. Pacific NorthwestFire Weather Program Manager position will be filled shortly. They will also hire a meteorologist as a "Fire Weather Systems Specialist". The Modernization Transition Committee (MTC) ruled against closure of the Portland office. CaliforniaHiring 2 more meteorologists. MTC also ruled against the closure of Redding and Riverside. The FWWT reviewed the MTC ruling and thought it upheld some of the concerns that were expessed in the NWCG letter to the NWS, written in Jan 1998. Gerry day will draft a letter to the NWCG informing them of the MTC rulings on "dedicated fire weather forecasters", currency standards, and the Redding, Riverside, and Portland offices.

BIAMike30 RAWS being updated to new standards.

 

Fire RAWSPhil-Deployed this year in a proof of concept mode. Originally was designed for prescribed burns but was used on wildfires this past season. Chris commented that the unit was very useful during the California fires. This item will be discussed again at the next FWWT meeting.

Request from NWCG to update or remove ??????? from PMS-It was decided that this version would be suspended, but updated in 2 years.

The next meeting will be in San Diego, Calif. From Jan 31-Feb 4, 2000. Pete and Chris will make the arrangements.

3. ATTACHMENTS