Skip to main content

8.8 Probability and Number of Ignitions

Probability is the chance that an event will happen and is expressed in terms of percent, or per 100. For example, if there is a 40 percent chance of a spot fire starting, that means that out of 100 glowing embers that fly off, 40 embers will likely start spot fires, and 60 will not. Percent is calculated by changing the percent into a fraction by dividing by 100, then multiplying by the total number of possible situations.

Example 1 - The probability of ignition is 80 percent. How many ignitions are likely to occur if 90 glowing firebrands land on receptive fuel?

Step 1. Change 80 percent to a fraction, 80/100 and then into a decimal. 80/100 = 0.80

Step 2. Multiply by the total number of situations, in this case glowing firebrands. 0.8 × 90 = 72
 

Expect 72 ignitions out of 90 glowing firebrands

NWCG Latest Announcements

Updated NWCG Standards for Fire Unmanned Aircraft Systems Operations, PMS 515

Date: May 10, 2024
Contact: IFUASS Qualification and Curriculum Board (IFUASS) 

The 2024 revision of the NWCG Standards for Fire Unmanned Aircraft Systems Operations, PMS 515 is now available. PMS 515 standardizes the processes and procedures for interagency use of Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS), including pilot inspections and approvals. This publication is now available as a PDF for easy use offline.

References:

NWCG Standards for Fire Unmanned Aircraft Systems Operations, PMS 515

Memorandum 24-003: Removal of Type 1 Command and General Staff (C&G) Incident Position Qualification Pathways

Date: May 10, 2024
Contact: Aitor Bidaburu 

The purpose of this memorandum is to provide NWCG direction for removal of the Type 1 Command and General Staff (C&G) incident position qualification pathways to transition to Complex Incident Management (CIM). Responders may continue to utilize available NWCG pathways to attain Type 1 C&G qualifications until December 31, 2024.

References:

Memorandum 24-003

CIM Story Map

2024 Professional Reading Program

Date: April 26, 2024
Contact: Wildland Fire Leadership Development Program (WFLDP) 

The Wildland Fire Leadership Development Program is announcing the 2024 Professional Reading list! The intent of the Professional Reading Program is to promote the reading and discussion of these books throughout the year. Discussion guides are provided and the corresponding Wildland Fire Leadership Levels have been identified.

The five books chosen for this year are: Young Men and Fire by Norman Maclean, The Wisdom of the Bullfrog by William H. McRaven, The Art of Clear Thinking by Hasard Lee, Emotional Agility by Susan David, and Writing to Persuade by Trish Hall.

References:

Professional Reading Program

Wildland Fire Leadership Levels

NWCG Training Catalog now on Wildland Fire Learning Portal

Date: April 25, 2023
Contact: NWCG Training  

The National Wildfire Coordinating Group (NWCG) has migrated the training catalog from the NWCG website to the Wildland Fire Learning Portal (WFLP) as part of our ongoing efforts to streamline processes and improve efficiency. To facilitate this transition, the training catalog remains available on www.nwcg.gov through April 2024.

Starting May 2024, the training catalog will no longer be accessible on www.nwcg.gov. However, you can still access the complete training catalog by logging in as a guest to the WFLP.

References:

Wildland Fire Learning Portal