Operations

Aerial Supervision Risk Assessments

Aircraft | Operations | Maintenance | Personnel

SYSTEM: Aerial Supervision, Operations

Sub-System	Hazards	Pre-Mitigation			Mitigation	Post-Mitigation
Sub-System	Hazards	Probability	Severity	Risk Level	Mitigation	Probability	Severity	Risk Level
Mission	Poor visibility (smoke) especially in low level environment	Almost Certain	Catastrophic	Extremely High	Limit exposure. A) Determine effectiveness of the operation (risk vs. benefit) and discontinue if warranted. B) Limit number of aircraft in operating area. C) Increase vertical/horizontal separation of aircraft.	Possible	Critical	High
	Wake turbulence in Leadplane and ASM platforms due to close proximity of airtankers	Almost Certain	Critical	Extremely High	A) Situational awareness assists prevention. B) Communication helps to avoid wake turbulence areas. C) Wake turbulence avoidance procedures (altitude, time, distance).	Unlikely	Critical	Medium
	Weather (turbulence/wind/thunderstorms)	Almost Certain	Critical	Extremely High	A) Adjust tactics or shut down air ops. B) Increase vertical/horizontal separation of aircraft. C) Utilize human aided technology (weather radar, etc.). D) Encourage dispatch to obtain/ communicate weather information. E) Utilize and share pilot reports of severe weather.	Possible	Critical	High
	Poor fuel management	Possible	Critical	High	A) Monitor fuel quantities. B) Follow fuel transfer procedures.	Unlikely	Critical	High
	Controlled Flight Into Terrain (CFIT) due to low level Leadplane and ASM operations	Almost Certain	Catastrophic	Extremely High	A) Ensure high level recon is completed prior to commencing low level flight. B) Manage radio communication. C) Proper aircraft configuration. D) Reduce exposure time in low level. E) Consult sectional chart/hazard map, consult ground personnel and other aircraft. F) Obtain unit inbrief and utilize local knowledge.	Unlikely	Catastrophic	High
	Airtanker overruns the Leadplane/ASM	Unlikely	Catastrophic	High	A) Brief the exit route. B) Airspeed control. C) Communicate the event. D) Maneuver to avoid collision.	Unlikely	Critical	Medium
	ATGS/ASM aircraft emergency (engine out, fire, bird strike, mechanical failure, etc.)	Possible	Catastrophic	Extremely High	Crew cross training and familiarization with aircraft systems and emergency procedure checklists (pinch hitter/simulator training).	Unlikely	Catastrophic	High
	Aircraft emergency occurs in low level lead operation with Leadplane	Unlikely	Catastrophic	High	A) Preplan escape routes. B) Train for emergency procedures. C) Fly the aircraft. D) Communicate and maintain situational awareness (SA).	Unlikely	Critical	Medium
	Leadplane/ASM operating in close proximity to other aircraft (mid-air potential)	Almost Certain	Catastrophic	Extremely High	A) Communication established with all aircraft. B) Situational awareness. C) TCAS. D) Establish clear and concise directions for simultaneous operations, (virtual fence, geographic separation, altitude separation, holding/timing, establish Initial point, ingress/egress route).	Unlikely	Catastrophic	High
	Reliance on technology causes distraction, low situational awareness, division of attention in the cockpit	Almost Certain	Catastrophic	Extremely High	A) Maintain situational awareness. B) Maintain see and avoid techniques. C) Prioritize mission/ cockpit workload. D) Utilize CRM practices.	Unlikely	Catastrophic	High
	Aircraft emergency during ASM/ATGS operations (engine out, fire, bird strike, mechanical failure, etc)	Possible	Catastrophic	Extremely High	Crew cross training and familiarization with aircraft systems and emergency procedure checklists (pinch hitter/simulator training).	Unlikely	Catastrophic	High
	ASM/ATGS operations exceed span of control	Possible	Critical	High	A) Ensure roles and responsibilities are assigned and understood within aerial supervision crew. B) Assign aircraft to common functions and tasks with a single point of contact. C) Hold aircraft at base to limit the number of assigned aircraft over the incident.	Unlikely	Critical	Medium
	Unclear objectives/tactics	Almost Certain	Critical	Extremely High	A) Ensure strategy and tactics are clear and understood. B) Use common terminology, solicit/utilize feedback.	Possible	Critical	High
	ASM/ATGS performance results in hazardous operation	Possible	Critical	High	A) Shut down the operation, deconflict the area and return to base to rebrief the mission. B) Mentor, proficiency check-ride, retrain / recertify.	Unlikely	Critical	Medium
	ASM/ATGS unnecessary exposure due to inefficient operational use of tactical aircraft	Likely	Critical	Extremely High	A) SOPs for all tactical aircraft types. B) Right tool for job. C) Training, feedback, brief/debrief.	Unlikely	Critical	Medium
Airspace	FTA: aircraft not complying with procedures	Likely	Catastrophic	Extremely High	Aerial supervision enforces FTA procedures.	Unlikely	Critical	Medium
	Multiple initial attack incidents in same area cause confusion, near miss hazard	Likely	Critical	Extremely High	A) Coordinate with dispatch and other aircraft. B) Ensure fire names, frequencies, locations, and aircraft assignments are communicated to all flight crews.	Possible	Critical	Medium
	Special use airspace: Aircraft not having authorization to enter the SUA, not coordinating with controlling agency	Likely	Critical	Extremely High	A) See and avoid. B) Know SUA areas. C) Establish communication with controlling agency. D) Thorough briefings.	Unlikely	Critical	Medium
	Non-incident aircraft intrusion in TFR	Likely	Catastrophic	Extremely High	A) See and avoid, Inform other aircraft on scene. B) Reevaluate TFR promotion.	Unlikely	Catastrophic	High
	Fires in proximity to airport/airstrip. Potential for mid-air collision or intrusion in FTA	Possible	Catastrophic	Extremely High	A) Implement/validate TFR as incident expands, deconflict SUA, establish commo with controlling agency, notify other aircraft. B) Provide TFR transition corridors for non-incident aircraft on large incidents. C) Increase awareness of GA operators and other agency flight crews not assigned to incident.	Unlikely	Catastrophic	High
Communications	Radio frequency congestion	Almost Certain	Critical	Extremely High	Exercise radio discipline and/or order additional frequencies as needed.	Unlikely	Critical	Medium
	State/county/rural resources on different bandwidth	Likely	Critical	Extremely High	Coordinate with cooperators to find a way to communicate with one another.	Unlikely	Critical	Medium
	Hazardous air operations resulting from inaccurate information disseminated through the dispatch system	Almost Certain	Critical	Extremely High	A) Verify information at time of dispatch. B) Flight crews will brief/debrief with dispatchers. C) Provide aviation training for dispatchers. D) Maintain qualified dispatcher on the aircraft desk.	Possible	Critical	High

Download the Word version (docx) of this information and the Risk Assessment Matrix (pdf) to use with the Risk Assessment Worksheet (docx).

Last Modified / Reviewed: April 25, 2024

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S-219, Firing Operations (Blended)

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Date: Sep 5, 2025
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Date: Aug 15, 2025
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NWCG is excited to announce that the S-290, Intermediate Wildland Fire Behavior (Blended) training is now available on the Wildland Fire Learning Portal. S-290 (Blended) training combines online training and instructor-led training components that support individuals working towards any Single Resource Boss or Fire Effects Monitor incident qualifications.

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S-290, Intermediate Wildland Fire Behavior (Blended)

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PMS 530-1

Operations

Aerial Supervision Risk Assessments

SYSTEM: Aerial Supervision, Operations

NWCG Latest Announcements

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References:

References:

References:

NWCG

National Wildfire Coordinating Group

PMS 530-1

PMS 530-1

Operations

Aerial Supervision Risk Assessments

SYSTEM: Aerial Supervision, Operations

NWCG Latest Announcements

References:

References:

References:

References:

NWCG National Wildfire Coordinating Group

NWCG

National Wildfire Coordinating Group