Skip to main content

PMS 530-1

Operations

Aerial Supervision Risk Assessments

Aircraft | Operations | Maintenance | Personnel


SYSTEM:  Aerial Supervision, Operations

Sub-System Hazards Pre-Mitigation Mitigation Post-Mitigation

Probability

Severity

Risk Level

Probability

Severity

Risk Level

Mission Poor visibility (smoke) especially in low level environment

Almost Certain

Catastrophic

Extremely High

Limit exposure. 

A) Determine effectiveness of the operation (risk vs. benefit) and discontinue if warranted.

B) Limit number of aircraft in operating area.

C) Increase vertical/horizontal separation of aircraft.

Possible

Critical

High

Wake turbulence in Leadplane and ASM platforms due to close proximity of airtankers

Almost Certain

Critical

Extremely High

A) Situational awareness assists prevention.

B) Communication helps to avoid wake turbulence areas.

C) Wake turbulence avoidance procedures (altitude, time, distance).

Unlikely

Critical

Medium

Weather (turbulence/wind/thunderstorms)

Almost Certain

Critical

Extremely High

A) Adjust tactics or shut down air ops.

B) Increase vertical/horizontal separation of aircraft.

C) Utilize human aided technology (weather radar, etc.).

D) Encourage dispatch to obtain/ communicate weather information.

E) Utilize and share pilot reports of severe weather.

Possible

Critical

High

Poor fuel management

Possible

Critical

High

A) Monitor fuel quantities.

B) Follow fuel transfer procedures.

Unlikely

Critical

High

Controlled Flight Into Terrain (CFIT) due to low level Leadplane and ASM operations

Almost Certain

Catastrophic

Extremely High

A) Ensure high level recon is completed prior to commencing low level flight.

B) Manage radio communication.

C) Proper aircraft configuration.

D) Reduce exposure time in low level.

E) Consult sectional chart/hazard map, consult ground personnel and other aircraft.

F) Obtain unit inbrief and utilize local knowledge.

Unlikely

Catastrophic

High

Airtanker overruns the Leadplane/ASM

Unlikely

Catastrophic

High

A) Brief the exit route.

B) Airspeed control.

C) Communicate the event.

D) Maneuver to avoid collision.

Unlikely

Critical

Medium

ATGS/ASM aircraft emergency (engine out, fire, bird strike, mechanical failure, etc.)

Possible

Catastrophic

Extremely High

Crew cross training and familiarization with aircraft systems and emergency procedure checklists (pinch hitter/simulator training).

Unlikely

Catastrophic

High

Aircraft emergency occurs in low level lead operation with Leadplane

Unlikely

Catastrophic

High

A) Preplan escape routes.

B) Train for emergency procedures.

C) Fly the aircraft.

D) Communicate and maintain situational awareness (SA).

Unlikely

Critical

Medium

Leadplane/ASM operating in close proximity to other aircraft (mid-air potential)

Almost Certain

Catastrophic

Extremely High

A) Communication established with all aircraft. 

B) Situational awareness.

C) TCAS.

D) Establish clear and concise directions for simultaneous operations, (virtual fence, geographic separation, altitude separation, holding/timing, establish Initial point, ingress/egress route).

Unlikely

Catastrophic

High

Reliance on technology causes distraction, low situational awareness, division of attention in the cockpit

Almost Certain

Catastrophic

Extremely High

A) Maintain situational awareness.

B) Maintain see and avoid techniques.

C) Prioritize mission/ cockpit workload.

D) Utilize CRM practices.

Unlikely

Catastrophic

High

Aircraft emergency during ASM/ATGS operations (engine out, fire, bird strike, mechanical failure, etc)

Possible

Catastrophic

Extremely High

Crew cross training and familiarization with aircraft systems and emergency procedure checklists (pinch hitter/simulator training).

Unlikely

Catastrophic

High

ASM/ATGS operations exceed span of control

Possible

Critical

High

A) Ensure roles and responsibilities are assigned and understood within aerial supervision crew.

B) Assign aircraft to common functions and tasks with a single point of contact.

C) Hold aircraft at base to limit the number of assigned aircraft over the incident.

Unlikely

Critical

Medium

Unclear objectives/tactics

Almost Certain

Critical

Extremely High

A) Ensure strategy and tactics are clear and understood.

B) Use common terminology, solicit/utilize feedback.

Possible

Critical

High

ASM/ATGS performance results in hazardous operation

Possible

Critical

High

A) Shut down the operation, deconflict the area and return to base to rebrief the mission.

B) Mentor, proficiency check-ride, retrain / recertify.

Unlikely

Critical

Medium

ASM/ATGS unnecessary exposure due to inefficient operational use of tactical aircraft

Likely

Critical

Extremely High

A) SOPs for all tactical aircraft types.

B) Right tool for job.

C) Training, feedback, brief/debrief.

Unlikely

Critical

Medium

Airspace FTA: aircraft not complying with procedures

Likely

Catastrophic

Extremely High

Aerial supervision enforces FTA procedures.

Unlikely

Critical

Medium

Multiple initial attack incidents in same area cause confusion, near miss hazard

Likely

Critical

Extremely High

A) Coordinate with dispatch and other aircraft.  

B) Ensure fire names, frequencies, locations, and aircraft assignments are communicated to all flight crews.

Possible

Critical

Medium

Special use airspace: Aircraft not having authorization to enter the SUA, not coordinating with controlling agency

Likely

Critical

Extremely High

A) See and avoid.

B) Know SUA areas.

C) Establish communication with controlling agency.

D) Thorough briefings.

Unlikely

Critical

Medium

Non-incident aircraft intrusion in TFR

Likely

Catastrophic

Extremely High

A) See and avoid, Inform other aircraft on scene. 

B) Reevaluate TFR promotion.

Unlikely

Catastrophic

High

Fires in proximity to airport/airstrip. Potential for mid-air collision or intrusion in FTA

Possible

Catastrophic

Extremely High

A) Implement/validate TFR as incident expands, deconflict SUA, establish commo with controlling agency, notify other aircraft.

B) Provide TFR transition corridors for non-incident aircraft on large incidents.

C) Increase awareness of GA operators and other agency flight crews not assigned to incident.

Unlikely

Catastrophic

High

Communications Radio frequency congestion

Almost Certain

Critical

Extremely High

Exercise radio discipline and/or order additional frequencies as needed.

Unlikely

Critical

Medium

State/county/rural resources on different bandwidth

Likely

Critical

Extremely High

Coordinate with cooperators to find a way to communicate with one another.

Unlikely

Critical

Medium

Hazardous air operations resulting from inaccurate information disseminated through the dispatch system

Almost Certain

Critical

Extremely High

A) Verify information at time of dispatch.

B) Flight crews will brief/debrief with dispatchers.

C) Provide aviation training for dispatchers.

D) Maintain qualified dispatcher on the aircraft desk.

Possible

Critical

High

 

Download the Word version (docx) of this information and the Risk Assessment Matrix (pdf) to use with the Risk Assessment Worksheet (docx).

 

 

Last Modified / Reviewed:

NWCG Latest Announcements

WFSTAR 2026 Core Components Module Package and 2025 Fire Year in Review Now Available

Date:  March 23, 2026
Questions? 
Please contact: Joe Schindel

The 2026 Core Components Module Package for RT-130, Wildland Fire Safety Training Annual Refresher (WFSTAR) and the 2025 Fire Year in Review are now available on the NWCG website. The 2026 Core Components Module Package provides all content needed to deliver RT-130.

References:

2026 Core Components Module Package

2025 Fire Year in Review Module

NEW! S-490, Advanced Fire Behavior Calculations (Blended) Available Now

Date:  March 17, 2026
Questions? 
Please contact: Fire Behavior Subcommittee

NWCG is pleased to announce that the new S-490, Advanced Fire Behavior Calculations (Blended), 2026 course is now available.

This training includes performance-based activities that allow students to apply the knowledge and concepts required for the Fire Behavior Analyst (FBAN), Long Term Fire Analyst (LTAN), and Prescribed Fire Burn Boss Type 1 (RXB1) positions. It supports individuals working towards these incident qualifications.

This blended course begins with a self-paced online training (OLT) in the Wildland Fire Learning Portal (WFLP), followed by an in-person instructor-led training (ILT).

References:

S-490, Advanced Fire Calculations (Blended)

NWCG Fire Behavior Analyst (FBAN) Position Page

NWCG Long Term Fire Analyst (LTAN) Position Page

NWCG Prescribed Fire Burn Boss Type 1 (RXB1) Position Page

2024 Paul Gleason Award Winners Announced

Date:  March 13, 2026
Questions? 
Please contact: Leadership Committee

The NWCG Leadership Committee is proud to announce the recipients of the 2024 Paul Gleason "Lead By Example" awards. Award categories include Initiative and Innovation, Mentoring and Teamwork, Motivation and Vision, as well as a Lifetime Achievement Award.

Congratulations to the awardees:

  • Justin Baxter, National Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) Operations Specialist, with the U.S. Forest Service — Initiative and Innovation
  • Kelly Woods, Director of the Wildland Firefighting Lessons Learned Center — Mentoring and Teamwork
  • Doug Booster, Instructor, ProHealth Net, Inc. — Motivation and Vision
  • Pam McDonald, Writer-Editor for the National Interagency Fire Center — Lifetime Achievement Award

References:

Paul Gleason Lead By Example Award

Wildland Fire Leadership Development Program (WFLDP)

Leadership Committee

NEW! S-231, Engine Boss Course Available Now

Date:  March 6, 2026
Questions? 
Please contact: Incident Operations Subcommittee

NWCG is pleased to announce the new S-231, Engine Boss (Single Resource) course is now available on the Wildland Fire Learning Portal (WFLP). Developed through the Incident Performance and Training Modernization (IPTM) effort, this training supports individuals working towards Engine Boss, Single Resource (ENGB) incident qualifications. 

This is a performance-based instructor-led training (ILT) that focuses on the application of ENGB responsibilities during wildland fire operations, emphasizing readiness, information gathering, risk management, engine tactics, and Wildland Urban Interface (WUI) operations. Trainees apply these skills through scenario-based group work and an optional field day that reinforces hands-on engine operation tasks. 

References:

S-231, Engine Boss (Single Resource) (Instructor-led)

NWCG Engine Boss, Single Resource (ENGB) Position Page

Wildland Fire Learning Portal