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PMS 530-1

Operations

Aerial Supervision Risk Assessments

Aircraft | Operations | Maintenance | Personnel


SYSTEM:  Aerial Supervision, Operations

Sub-System Hazards Pre-Mitigation Mitigation Post-Mitigation

Probability

Severity

Risk Level

Probability

Severity

Risk Level

Mission Poor visibility (smoke) especially in low level environment

Almost Certain

Catastrophic

Extremely High

Limit exposure. 

A) Determine effectiveness of the operation (risk vs. benefit) and discontinue if warranted.

B) Limit number of aircraft in operating area.

C) Increase vertical/horizontal separation of aircraft.

Possible

Critical

High

Wake turbulence in Leadplane and ASM platforms due to close proximity of airtankers

Almost Certain

Critical

Extremely High

A) Situational awareness assists prevention.

B) Communication helps to avoid wake turbulence areas.

C) Wake turbulence avoidance procedures (altitude, time, distance).

Unlikely

Critical

Medium

Weather (turbulence/wind/thunderstorms)

Almost Certain

Critical

Extremely High

A) Adjust tactics or shut down air ops.

B) Increase vertical/horizontal separation of aircraft.

C) Utilize human aided technology (weather radar, etc.).

D) Encourage dispatch to obtain/ communicate weather information.

E) Utilize and share pilot reports of severe weather.

Possible

Critical

High

Poor fuel management

Possible

Critical

High

A) Monitor fuel quantities.

B) Follow fuel transfer procedures.

Unlikely

Critical

High

Controlled Flight Into Terrain (CFIT) due to low level Leadplane and ASM operations

Almost Certain

Catastrophic

Extremely High

A) Ensure high level recon is completed prior to commencing low level flight.

B) Manage radio communication.

C) Proper aircraft configuration.

D) Reduce exposure time in low level.

E) Consult sectional chart/hazard map, consult ground personnel and other aircraft.

F) Obtain unit inbrief and utilize local knowledge.

Unlikely

Catastrophic

High

Airtanker overruns the Leadplane/ASM

Unlikely

Catastrophic

High

A) Brief the exit route.

B) Airspeed control.

C) Communicate the event.

D) Maneuver to avoid collision.

Unlikely

Critical

Medium

ATGS/ASM aircraft emergency (engine out, fire, bird strike, mechanical failure, etc.)

Possible

Catastrophic

Extremely High

Crew cross training and familiarization with aircraft systems and emergency procedure checklists (pinch hitter/simulator training).

Unlikely

Catastrophic

High

Aircraft emergency occurs in low level lead operation with Leadplane

Unlikely

Catastrophic

High

A) Preplan escape routes.

B) Train for emergency procedures.

C) Fly the aircraft.

D) Communicate and maintain situational awareness (SA).

Unlikely

Critical

Medium

Leadplane/ASM operating in close proximity to other aircraft (mid-air potential)

Almost Certain

Catastrophic

Extremely High

A) Communication established with all aircraft. 

B) Situational awareness.

C) TCAS.

D) Establish clear and concise directions for simultaneous operations, (virtual fence, geographic separation, altitude separation, holding/timing, establish Initial point, ingress/egress route).

Unlikely

Catastrophic

High

Reliance on technology causes distraction, low situational awareness, division of attention in the cockpit

Almost Certain

Catastrophic

Extremely High

A) Maintain situational awareness.

B) Maintain see and avoid techniques.

C) Prioritize mission/ cockpit workload.

D) Utilize CRM practices.

Unlikely

Catastrophic

High

Aircraft emergency during ASM/ATGS operations (engine out, fire, bird strike, mechanical failure, etc)

Possible

Catastrophic

Extremely High

Crew cross training and familiarization with aircraft systems and emergency procedure checklists (pinch hitter/simulator training).

Unlikely

Catastrophic

High

ASM/ATGS operations exceed span of control

Possible

Critical

High

A) Ensure roles and responsibilities are assigned and understood within aerial supervision crew.

B) Assign aircraft to common functions and tasks with a single point of contact.

C) Hold aircraft at base to limit the number of assigned aircraft over the incident.

Unlikely

Critical

Medium

Unclear objectives/tactics

Almost Certain

Critical

Extremely High

A) Ensure strategy and tactics are clear and understood.

B) Use common terminology, solicit/utilize feedback.

Possible

Critical

High

ASM/ATGS performance results in hazardous operation

Possible

Critical

High

A) Shut down the operation, deconflict the area and return to base to rebrief the mission.

B) Mentor, proficiency check-ride, retrain / recertify.

Unlikely

Critical

Medium

ASM/ATGS unnecessary exposure due to inefficient operational use of tactical aircraft

Likely

Critical

Extremely High

A) SOPs for all tactical aircraft types.

B) Right tool for job.

C) Training, feedback, brief/debrief.

Unlikely

Critical

Medium

Airspace FTA: aircraft not complying with procedures

Likely

Catastrophic

Extremely High

Aerial supervision enforces FTA procedures.

Unlikely

Critical

Medium

Multiple initial attack incidents in same area cause confusion, near miss hazard

Likely

Critical

Extremely High

A) Coordinate with dispatch and other aircraft.  

B) Ensure fire names, frequencies, locations, and aircraft assignments are communicated to all flight crews.

Possible

Critical

Medium

Special use airspace: Aircraft not having authorization to enter the SUA, not coordinating with controlling agency

Likely

Critical

Extremely High

A) See and avoid.

B) Know SUA areas.

C) Establish communication with controlling agency.

D) Thorough briefings.

Unlikely

Critical

Medium

Non-incident aircraft intrusion in TFR

Likely

Catastrophic

Extremely High

A) See and avoid, Inform other aircraft on scene. 

B) Reevaluate TFR promotion.

Unlikely

Catastrophic

High

Fires in proximity to airport/airstrip. Potential for mid-air collision or intrusion in FTA

Possible

Catastrophic

Extremely High

A) Implement/validate TFR as incident expands, deconflict SUA, establish commo with controlling agency, notify other aircraft.

B) Provide TFR transition corridors for non-incident aircraft on large incidents.

C) Increase awareness of GA operators and other agency flight crews not assigned to incident.

Unlikely

Catastrophic

High

Communications Radio frequency congestion

Almost Certain

Critical

Extremely High

Exercise radio discipline and/or order additional frequencies as needed.

Unlikely

Critical

Medium

State/county/rural resources on different bandwidth

Likely

Critical

Extremely High

Coordinate with cooperators to find a way to communicate with one another.

Unlikely

Critical

Medium

Hazardous air operations resulting from inaccurate information disseminated through the dispatch system

Almost Certain

Critical

Extremely High

A) Verify information at time of dispatch.

B) Flight crews will brief/debrief with dispatchers.

C) Provide aviation training for dispatchers.

D) Maintain qualified dispatcher on the aircraft desk.

Possible

Critical

High

 

Download the Word version (docx) of this information and the Risk Assessment Matrix (pdf) to use with the Risk Assessment Worksheet (docx).

 

 

Last Modified / Reviewed:

NWCG Latest Announcements

RMC Safety Bulletin 26-001: Rhabdomyolysis in Wildland Firefighters

Date:  May 28, 2026
Questions? 
Please contact: Risk Management Committee

The Risk Management Committee (RMC) has issued Safety Bulletin 26-001: Rhabdomyolysis in Wildland Firefighters. Research from 2016 to 2025 shows that 88 cases of rhabdomyolysis (rhabdo) were reported. Analysis of reports from eSafety, the Safety Management Information System (SMIS), and the Wildland Fire Lessons Learned Center (LLC) indicates that rhabdo is common during this time of year due to Work Capacity Tests and contributing factors such as weather, hydration, nutrition, and medication or supplement use.

RMC issued this safety bulletin to raise awareness in the Wildland Fire Community, and to provide research findings and educational resources that support reducing future cases of rhabdo.

References:

NWCG Alerts

RMC Safety Bulletin 26-001: Rhabdomyolysis in Wildland Firefighters

NEW! D-110, Expanded Dispatch Recorder Course Available Now

Date:  May 15, 2026
Questions? 
Please contact: Dispatch Position and Curriculum Management Subcommittee

NWCG is pleased to announce the new D-110, Expanded Dispatch Recorder (Instructor-led) course is now available on the Wildland Fire Learning Portal (WFLP). Developed through the National Coordination System Committee, this course introduces the structure and function of expanded dispatch, the qualities of an effective dispatcher, and provides hands-on experience with the Interagency Resource Ordering Capability (IROC) system. 

The D-110, Expanded Dispatch Recorder course aligns with the competencies and duties outlined in the NWCG Incident Position Standards for Expanded Dispatch Recorder, PMS 350-59, and is designed for individuals with no prior experience who may be called upon to support dispatch operations.

References:

D-110, Expanded Dispatch Recorder (Instructor-Led)

Expanded Dispatch Recorder (EDRC), Position Page

NWCG Incident Position Standards for Expanded Dispatch Recorder, PMS 350-59

Wildland Fire Learning Portal

Leadership Committee IAP Flyer Now Available

Date:  May 8, 2026
Questions? 
Please contact: Leadership Committee

The NWCG Leadership Committee promotes and enables leadership development across the wildland fire service. The committee provides education, training opportunities, and support for leadership innovation and best practices throughout the community.

A new IAP flyer is now available on the committee website, offering an overview of the products, curriculum, and learning opportunities the Leadership Committee develops. This resource is ideal for posting in your office, sharing with new employees, or distributing through your incident management teams to engage new voices in the leadership journey and reinforce a culture of self‑reflection, development, and growth.

References:

Leadership Committee 2026 IAP Flyer

Incident Operations Subcommittee Updates the Next Generation Position Task Book for FFT1

Date:  May 7, 2026
Questions? 
Please contact: Incident Operations Subcommittee

The NWCG Incident Operations Subcommittee (IOSC) has updated the NWCG Position Task Book for Firefighter Type 1 (Squad Boss) (FFT1), PMS 311‑14. The FFT1 Position Task Book transitioned to the Next Generation (Next Gen PTB) format in June 2025 through the Incident Performance and Training Modernization effort. Since then, IOSC has received feedback from the wildland fire community regarding coding for one of the tasks. Task #13 has been updated to include the option of evaluation in a simulation.

See IOSC Memorandum 26‑01: Transition Plan for Implementation of Updates to the NWCG Position Task Book for Firefighter Type 1 (Squad Boss) (FFT1), PMS 311‑14 for more information.

References:

IOSC Memorandum 26-01: Transition Plan for Implementation of Updates to the NWCG Position Task Book for Firefighter Type 1

NWCG Firefighter Type 1 Squad Boss Position Page