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PMS 530-1

Personnel

Aerial Supervision Risk Assessments

Aircraft | Operations | Maintenance | Personnel


SYSTEM:  Aerial Supervision, Personnel

Sub-System Hazards Pre-Mitigation Mitigation Post-Mitigation

Probability

Severity

Risk Level

Probability

Severity

Risk Level

Human Factors Loss of situational awareness (SA) due to pilot/aircrew fatigue/burnout

Likely

Critical

Extremely High

A) Adhere to flight and duty limitations policy.

B) Activate phase limitations.

Possible

Critical

High

Hazardous air operations developing with ASM/ATGS through ineffective Crew Resource Management (CRM)

Unlikely

Critical

Medium

A) Re-evaluate task allocation.

B) Brief and debrief.

Rare

Critical

Medium

Leadplane pilot experiencing task saturation specific to single pilot operation

Almost Certain

Critical

Extremely High

A) Employ CRM using span-of-control guidelines for multiple aircraft.

B) Adjust tactics as needed.

Unlikely

Critical

Medium

Acceptance of high risk as normal (Complacency)

Likely

Catastrophic

Extremely High

A) Re-evaluate risk vs benefit.

B) Solicit feedback from other flight crews.

C) Utilize CRM to validate mission parameters.

D) Validate mission, or remove the high risk taking individual from the mission.

Unlikely

Catastrophic

High

Hazardous air operations developing due to external pressures

Possible

Critical

High

A) Do not allow external pressure to influence the operation.

B) Utilize CRM to ensure an effective operation with acceptable level of risk.

Unlikely

Critical

Medium

Dehydration

Almost Certain

Moderate

High

Drink more water, stay hydrated, and maintain SA of your health.

Rare

Negligible

Low

Hazardous attitude: Anti authority, macho, invulnerability, impulsiveness, and resignation

Almost Certain

Critical

Extremely High

A) Remove the individual from the mission.

B) Properly supervise employees.

C) Adhere to work-rest guidelines, flight and duty limitations policy, etc.

D) Validate and stick to incident strategy and tactics.

Possible

Critical 

High

 

Download the Word version (docx) of this information and the Risk Assessment Matrix (pdf) to use with the Risk Assessment Worksheet (docx).

 

 

Last Modified / Reviewed:

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Call for Nominations: Paul Gleason Lead by Example Award

Date: December 11, 2025
Questions? Please contact:
 Leadership Committee 

Do you know someone working in wildland fire who strives to make positive change and is undeterred by obstacles or setbacks? Now is your chance to give that person the acknowledgment they deserve by nominating them for a Paul Gleason Lead by Example Award.

This award, is presented by the NWCG Leadership Committee to remember Paul Gleason's contributions to the wildland fire community and to recognize individuals or groups that exhibit the same spirit and dedication to leadership – those who lead by example.

Nominations can be submitted via email with an attached Lead by Example Form to BLM_FA_Leadership_Feedback@blm.gov or through the online form

Tips for successful nominations and more information can be found on the Lead by Example webpage. All nominations must be submitted by December 31, 2025.

References:

Paul Gleason Lead By Example Award 

Paul Gleason Lead by Example Award Nomination Form 2025 

Leadership Committee 

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Date: December 9, 2025
Questions about RT-130? 
Please contact: NWCG Audiovisual Specialist

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Later this month, NWCG will release a compelling video that brings the Ransom Road Fire to life through firsthand accounts, official reports, and animated maps. Rob Lee, second on site during the deployment, shares his powerful recollections of that day. 

This video will be going live later this month in NWCG's RT-130, Wildland Fire Safety Training Annual Refresher (WFSTAR) Catalogue.

References:

WFSTAR Catalogue 

Wildland Fire Lessons Learned Center

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Date: October 15, 2025
Questions? Please contact:
Leadership Committee

NWCG is excited to announce the release of the Leadership Committee’s 2025–2026 Leadership Campaign, themed “Leadership Levels.” This annual initiative offers all students of leadership and wildland fire management an opportunity to engage with essential leadership skills and knowledge needed to lead effectively in dynamic environments.

The campaign is structured into four quarters and may be completed at any time between October 1, 2025 -December 31, 2026. Leadership levels will be released quarterly.

Quarter One materials are now available on the Wildland Fire Leadership Development Program website and focus on Leadership Level 1, Follower (Self-Leadership).

References:

2025/2026 NWCG Leadership Campaign - Leadership Levels

Wildland Fire Leadership Development Program

Leadership Committee

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Date: October 3, 2024
Questions? Please contact:
Leadership Committee

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This instructor-led course is a primer on leadership and the second formal course in the Wildland Fire Leadership Development Program. It helps emerging leaders build the confidence, skills, and mindset needed to lead effectively in high-risk environments. 

For more information about leadership development and available courses, visit the Leadership Committee Web Portal.

References:

L-280, Followership to Leadership (Instructor-led)

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Wildland Fire Learning Portal