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Common Denominators of Fire Behavior On Tragedy Fires

 

Use the NWCG Incident Response Pocket Guide (IRPG), PMS 461, to review and discuss the five major common denominators of fire behavior on fatal and near-fatal fires. These common denominators have been identified through studies of tragedy fires. It is important for firefighters to readily recognize them to prevent future tragedies. 

Fire managers make decisions throughout the day on how to suppress fires and best use resources while protecting life and property. This Standard Firefighting Order depicts a firefighter observing increased fire behavior during a time of day when temperatures are high and relative humidity is low.

3. Base all actions on current and expected behavior of the fire. A firefighter looks at his watch, which reads 2 PM, while a fire actively grows in steep terrain and heavy timber.

3. Base all actions on current and expected behavior of the fire.

Read about all 10 Standard Firefighting Orders.

Such fires often occur:

  1. On relatively small fires or deceptively quiet areas of large fires.
  2. In relatively light fuels, such as grass, herbs, and light brush.
  3. When there is an unexpected shift in wind direction or in wind speed.
  4. When fire responds to topographic conditions and runs uphill.
  5. Critical burn period between 1400 and 1700.


Alignment of topography and wind during the critical burning period should be considered a trigger point to reevaluate tactics.

Blowup to burnover conditions generally occur in less than 60 minutes and can be as little as 5 minutes.

The time of Blow up shows the hour at which tragic fires occurred pointing to a watch on left.

A tactical pause may be prudent around 1400 for reevaluating your situational awareness of topography, fuels, and weather.

It can be used as an opportunity to remember that this is the beginning of a dangerous part of the day for fighting fires and increased caution is in order.

References:

Category
Weather - Fire Behavior

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NWCG Latest Announcements

Quarter Three Materials for the 2025-2026 Wildland Fire Leadership Campaign Now Available

Date:  April 1, 2026
Questions? 
Please contact: Leadership Committee

NWCG is excited to announce that Quarter Three materials for the 2025/2026 Wildland Fire Leadership Campaign are now available. This annual initiative offers all students of leadership and wildland fire management an opportunity to engage with essential leadership skills and knowledge needed to lead effectively in dynamic environments.

Quarter Three materials focus on Leadership Level 3: Leader of People (Develop Intent). Leadership Level 3 is where your values, your team, and your influence come together. Leaders of People put their teams first, build trust, and lead with authenticity. They mentor future leaders and shape decisions up and down the chain.

References:

2025/2026 NWCG Leadership Campaign - Leadership Levels

Wildland Fire Leadership Development Program

Leadership Committee

WFSTAR 2026 Core Components Module Package and 2025 Fire Year in Review Now Available

Date:  March 23, 2026
Questions? 
Please contact: Joe Schindel

The 2026 Core Components Module Package for RT-130, Wildland Fire Safety Training Annual Refresher (WFSTAR) and the 2025 Fire Year in Review are now available on the NWCG website. The 2026 Core Components Module Package provides all content needed to deliver RT-130.

References:

2026 Core Components Module Package

2025 Fire Year in Review Module

NEW! S-490, Advanced Fire Behavior Calculations (Blended) Available Now

Date:  March 17, 2026
Questions? 
Please contact: Fire Behavior Subcommittee

NWCG is pleased to announce that the new S-490, Advanced Fire Behavior Calculations (Blended), 2026 course is now available.

This training includes performance-based activities that allow students to apply the knowledge and concepts required for the Fire Behavior Analyst (FBAN), Long Term Fire Analyst (LTAN), and Prescribed Fire Burn Boss Type 1 (RXB1) positions. It supports individuals working towards these incident qualifications.

This blended course begins with a self-paced online training (OLT) in the Wildland Fire Learning Portal (WFLP), followed by an in-person instructor-led training (ILT).

References:

S-490, Advanced Fire Calculations (Blended)

NWCG Fire Behavior Analyst (FBAN) Position Page

NWCG Long Term Fire Analyst (LTAN) Position Page

NWCG Prescribed Fire Burn Boss Type 1 (RXB1) Position Page

2024 Paul Gleason Award Winners Announced

Date:  March 13, 2026
Questions? 
Please contact: Leadership Committee

The NWCG Leadership Committee is proud to announce the recipients of the 2024 Paul Gleason "Lead By Example" awards. Award categories include Initiative and Innovation, Mentoring and Teamwork, Motivation and Vision, as well as a Lifetime Achievement Award.

Congratulations to the awardees:

  • Justin Baxter, National Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) Operations Specialist, with the U.S. Forest Service — Initiative and Innovation
  • Kelly Woods, Director of the Wildland Firefighting Lessons Learned Center — Mentoring and Teamwork
  • Doug Booster, Instructor, ProHealth Net, Inc. — Motivation and Vision
  • Pam McDonald, Writer-Editor for the National Interagency Fire Center — Lifetime Achievement Award

References:

Paul Gleason Lead By Example Award

Wildland Fire Leadership Development Program (WFLDP)

Leadership Committee