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National Predictive Services Oversight Group

PSOG header graphic. Decorative.

The National Predictive Services Oversight Group (PSOG) provides management oversight and direction to National Predictive Services Program. The group coordinates, directs and oversees the development and implementation of national program products and services, ensures the integrity and cohesiveness of program operations, arbitrates differences, and provides a venue for dialogue and deliberation in support of a sustainable and effective program.

Key Documents

Membership

Member Role Organization Email
Brian Achziger (Chair)  NMAC Rep (Primary) BLM bachziger@blm.gov
Marco Perea (Vice Chair)  GACC Rep (Primary) BLM mperea@blm.gov
Jacob Nuttall CGAC Representative (Primary) USFS jacob.nuttall@usda.gov
Craig Glazier CGAC Representative USFS craig.glazier@usda.gov
Vacant Fire Manager Rep (Primary)    
Seth Grimm Fire Manager Rep (Primary) FWS seth_grimm@fws.gov
Derrek Hartman NICC Represenative (Primary) USFS derrek.hartman@usda.gov
Sean Peterson NICC Represenative USFS speterson@blm.gov
Billy Gardunio Fire Analyst (Primary) USFS billy.gardunio@usda.gov
Kevin Osborne Fire Analyst USFS kevin.osborne@usda.gov
Phillip Selegue Intelligence (Primary) State Phillip.Selegue@fire.ca.gov
Dan Eiszle Intelligence USFS daniel.eiszle@usda.gov
Shelby Law Meteorologist (Primary) BLM slaw@blm.gov
Heidi Strader Meteorologist NPS heidi_strader@nps.gov
Annie Benoit OWF Liaison (Primary) OWF annie_benoit@ios.doi.gov
Jason Fallon FMB Liaison (Primary) NPS jason_fallon@nps.gov
Dave Schultz NWCG Coordinator BLM dschultz@blm.gov

 

What is Predictive Services?

Predictive Services is the blended function of intelligence, fire management analysis, and meteorological components working cohesively for the purpose of incident management decision support.  As a functional program, Predictive Services consists of eleven individual units located at each of the Geographic Area Coordination Centers and the National Interagency Coordination Center. 

Do each of the Predictive Services Units have intelligence, fire management analyst and meteorologist components?

Yes, or at least that’s the intent.  From unit to unit, current staffing varies.  The staffing template for a Predictive Services Unit includes a Fire Management Analyst, an Intelligence Coordinator and Assistant, and two Meteorologists.  The template provides each unit with the capacity to fulfill the “blended function” of the three Predictive Services components as well as the ability to provide for unit leadership and 7-day staff coverage.

Who supervises the Predictive Services Units?  How do they fit in the larger fire program?

A Unit Manager provides the necessary unit leadership to ensure staffing, accountability and unit cohesiveness.  Each Predictive Services Unit is integrated as National/Geographic Area Coordination Center staff under the supervision of the Coordination Center Manager.

How do Predictive Services Units function as Coordination Center staff?

The Geographic Area Coordination Centers (GACCs) coordinate with agency fire managers and local dispatch centers to determine needs, coordinate priorities and facilitate timely and cost-effective mobilization of resources within their geographic area of responsibility.  The National Interagency Coordination Center (NICC) functions in the same fashion at the national level, coordinating among the different GACCs.  As Coordination Center Staff, Predictive Services provides the intelligence that frames management decisions in the short and long term.

Does the NICC Predictive Services Unit function as the “National Predictive Services Program”?

No, though it does serve a crucial role.  “National Predictive Services” takes both form and function from the combined effort of all Predictive Services Units collaborating as one national program and serving a coordinated suite of products and services.  The “7-Day Significant Fire Potential Forecast Product” is one example of a national product collaboratively served by all Predictive Services Units.  Situated at a national level, the NICC Predictive Services Unit serves in a leadership role as it coordinates with all the Geographic Area Predictive Services Units, facilitating the flow of unit information that feeds national products and compiling relevant data into meaningful intelligence that frames national decision-making.

So Geographic Area Predictive Services Units only provide for national products?

Not at all.  This assumes that national and geographic area intelligence needs are mutually exclusive.  While there may be esoteric data sets feeding specific Geographic Area needs, the factors which frame risk-based decisions affecting incident management and resource mobilization—safety, values at risk, resource availability/effectiveness, and social/political considerations—are common to all Geographic Areas.  Management, at all levels, is well-served by a program that seeks to collaborate and align its relevant parts so that the organization as a whole remains informed and in step.

So how does management ensure that this happens?

By engaging as an active player in the Predictive Services program.  This is why the Fire Management Board appointed the Predictive Services Phase 1 Program Review in September of 2016.  The task group’s purpose was to conduct an interagency program review to measure the effectiveness of the existing Predictive Services program in meeting the changing needs of wildland fire management.

And what did the Phase 1 Review find?

Briefly, the review concluded that while Predictive Services had a firm customer base, useful products and had demonstrated clear value in what it provided to fire managers, program function and capability indicated there was room for improvement.  This was the reason the Fire Management Board implemented Phase 2 of the program review.

What was Phase 2’s purpose?

Phase 2’s objective was to prioritize, evaluate and recommend alternative courses of action in order to resolve the significant issues identified in Phase 1.  The Phase 2 Task Group worked to resolve a number of management issues; national program status, governance and program guidance and management were the task groups top three priorities.

And what did the Phase 2 Program Review conclude?

Initially, they delivered the operating principles that guided the Task Group’s deliberations as well as constructing a detailed mission statement for the National Predictive Services program.  These can be found in the FMB Memorandum 18-001dated March 21, 2018.

With these tools in hand, the Task Group assembled four action alternatives that presented a range of management solutions to Predictive Services’ governance, guidance, management and other issues.  Two of these alternatives were recommended as “preferred” actions for FMB deliberation.

Most importantly, the Task Group developed a multi-disciplinary group—the Predictive Services Oversight Group or PSOG—to provide management oversight and guidance to the National Predictive Services Program.  The PSOG Charter provides details of the group's purpose and composition.

What can we expect next?

At this point, the Phase 2 Task Group has completed its task.  In July, FMB will make the final decision for a preferred management alternative and begin standing up the Predictive Services Oversight Group.  Once PSOG is in place, they will begin the work of implementing management solutions identified in the Predictive Services Phase 2 Program Review.

NWCG Latest Announcements

Updated NWCG Guide for Wildland Fire Modules, PMS 431

Date: May 14, 2025
Questions?  Please contact:
Fire Use Subcommittee

The updated NWCG Guide for Wildland Fire Modules, PMS 431 serves as a supplemental resource for wildland fire module operations, providing information frequently used in the field.

PMS 431 defines the organizational structure, staffing, and qualifications for Type 1 and Type 2 Wildland Fire Modules, outlining their roles in wildland fire suppression, prescribed fire, and resource management. The NWCG Guide for Wildland Fire Modules, PMS 431, should be used in conjunction with the NWCG Standards for Wildland Fire Module Operations, PMS 430.

References:

NWCG Guide for Wildland Fire Modules, PMS 431

NWCG Standards for Wildland Fire Module Operations, PMS 430

Updated NWCG Standards for Wildland Fire Resource Typing, PMS 200 Now Includes Off-Highway Vehicle Typing Standards

Date: May 13, 2025
Questions?  Please contact:
Mobile Fire Equipment Subcommittee 

The NWCG Standards for Wildland Fire Resource Typing, PMS 200 has been updated to include newly developed Off-Highway Vehicle (OHV) typing standards. These standards organize OHV information into logical categories and outline key safety requirements for occupants.

NWCG Standards for Wildland Fire Resource Typing, PMS 200 establishes minimum typing standards for aircraft, crews, and equipment used in national mobilization to wildland fire incidents. Typing designations are assigned based on measurable capability and performance criteria.

References:

NWCG Standards for Wildland Fire Resource Typing, PMS 200

NEW! S-204, Interpersonal and Critical Thinking Skills for Safety Officers Now Available

Date: May 12, 2025
Questions?  Please contact:
Risk Management Committee

The S-204, Interpersonal and Critical Thinking Skills for Safety Officers self-directed online course is now available! Developed through the Incident Performance and Training Modernization (IPTM) effort, this training supports individuals working towards Safety Officer, Field (SOFF) incident qualifications.

S-204, Interpersonal and Critical Thinking Skills for Safety Officers focuses on facilitating hazard mitigation conversations and building trust to influence safety-related decisions. Individuals can self-enroll through the Wildland Fire Learning Portal (WFLP).

Any changes to qualification pathways will take effect with the next update of the NWCG Standards for Wildland Fire Position Qualifications, PMS 310-1.

References:

S-204, Interpersonal and Critical Thinking Skills for Safety Officers 

NWCG Safety Officer, Field (SOFF) Position Page

Wildland Fire Learning Portal

Great Basin Cache Upgrading to New Inventory System

Date: May 7, 2025
Questions?  Please contact:
Great Basin Cache
Phone: (208) 387-5104
Fax: (208) 387-5573

The Great Basin Cache (GBK) is transitioning to a new inventory system to better serve the wildland fire community. During this upgrade, GBK will be unable to process standard orders from Part 1: Fire Supplies and Equipment and Part 2: Publications between May 8-20, 2025, with exceptions made for emergency fire orders. Orders will be accepted through close of business May 7.

To browse the latest available items, please refer to the National Fire Equipment System (NFES) catalogs. 

References:

NWCG NFES Catalog-Part 1: Fire Supplies and Equipment, PMS 449-1

NWCG NFES Catalog-Part 2: Publications, PMS 449-2