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Replacing Haines Index and Lightning Activity Level

Background

The National Wildfire Coordinating Group (NWCG) Fire Weather Subcommittee (FWS) has recommended discontinuing the use of Haines Index (HI) and Lightning Activity Level (LAL) in fire weather forecasts and in NWCG training and curricula. A transition plan has been built to help firefighters understand what weather metrics to assess and how to brief all levels in the chain of command for the 2025 fire season.

Why are these fire weather metrics being replaced?

The HI is unsupported by research in predicting large fire growth and it is not a metric of atmospheric stability. Additionally, LAL is a duplicate of the thunderstorm coverage product that is already in the fire weather forecasts. The decision process included extensive interagency coordination and discussion as well as evaluation of peer-reviewed research.

Mixing Height

  • Mixing Height is the best current metric to replace HI.
  • Answers the question: how high in the atmosphere will rising air (fire column/smoke) ascend freely.
  • Mixing Height and Mixing Depth are interchangeable terms.
  • Mixing Height can indicate the ability of the atmosphere to support ascent of smoke and fire columns and conversely, resistance to vertical motion.
  • WHERE TO FIND: Spot Weather Forecast Discussions, Fire Weather Forecast discussions, and Fire Weather Dashboard (limited to 72 hours).

Mixing Height graph 72 hour limit.

Chance of Precipitation Crosswalk

  • Combining working in the Chance of Precipitation and Chance of Wetting Rain are the best resources (combined) to replace LAL.
  • Assessing the Potential for Lightning:
    • Are thunderstorm chances (in %) given in Sky/Weather section?
    • A higher percentage means higher odds for storms and lightning.
    • Compare to Chance of Wetting Rain (CWR). A high thunderstorm chance with low CWR may imply dry thunderstorms.
    • Remember any thunderstorm can lead to ignitions from lightning.
  • WHERE TO FIND: Chance of Precipitation and Chance of Wetting Rain from Fire Weather Planning Forecast, Spot Weather Forecast, and Fire Weather Dashboard.

References:

Category
Weather - Fire Behavior

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Date: February 13, 2026
Questions? 
Please contact: Leadership Committee

NWCG is excited to announce that the Quarter Two materials for the 2025/2026 Wildland Fire Leadership Campaign are now available! This annual initiative invites all leadership and wildland fire management students to engage with essential skills and knowledge needed to lead effectively in dynamic environments.

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Date: February 10, 2026
Questions? 
Please contact: NWCG SME Specialist

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Projects begin April/May 2026 and require 15–20 hours per month for 6–8 months, including a five-day workshop in Boise, Idaho this May. Apply by February 27, 2026, at the link below and review the attached document for details.

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Please contact: Resource Advisor Subcommittee

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References:

Resource Advisor, Fireline Position Page

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Please contact: Incident and Position Standards Committee

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These updates address changes to incident position names and requirements for qualification, training, and experience. Updates related to the implementation of Complex Incident Management (CIM) and Incident Performance Training Modernization (IPTM) are also included.

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References:

NWCG Standards for Wildland Fire Position Qualifications, PMS 310-1

NWCG Wildland Fire Position Qualification Flowchart, PMS 308

IPSC Memo 26-01: January 2026 Updates to the NWCG Standards for Wildland Fire Positions Qualifications, PMS 310-1