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Replacing Haines Index and Lightning Activity Level

Background

The National Wildfire Coordinating Group (NWCG) Fire Weather Subcommittee (FWS) has recommended discontinuing the use of Haines Index (HI) and Lightning Activity Level (LAL) in fire weather forecasts and in NWCG training and curricula. A transition plan has been built to help firefighters understand what weather metrics to assess and how to brief all levels in the chain of command for the 2025 fire season.

Why are these fire weather metrics being replaced?

The HI is unsupported by research in predicting large fire growth and it is not a metric of atmospheric stability. Additionally, LAL is a duplicate of the thunderstorm coverage product that is already in the fire weather forecasts. The decision process included extensive interagency coordination and discussion as well as evaluation of peer-reviewed research.

Mixing Height

  • Mixing Height is the best current metric to replace HI.
  • Answers the question: how high in the atmosphere will rising air (fire column/smoke) ascend freely.
  • Mixing Height and Mixing Depth are interchangeable terms.
  • Mixing Height can indicate the ability of the atmosphere to support ascent of smoke and fire columns and conversely, resistance to vertical motion.
  • WHERE TO FIND: Spot Weather Forecast Discussions, Fire Weather Forecast discussions, and Fire Weather Dashboard (limited to 72 hours).
Mixing Height graph 72 hour limit.

Chance of Precipitation Crosswalk

  • Combining working in the Chance of Precipitation and Chance of Wetting Rain are the best resources (combined) to replace LAL.
  • Assessing the Potential for Lightning:
    • Are thunderstorm chances (in %) given in Sky/Weather section?
    • A higher percentage means higher odds for storms and lightning.
    • Compare to Chance of Wetting Rain (CWR). A high thunderstorm chance with low CWR may imply dry thunderstorms.
    • Remember any thunderstorm can lead to ignitions from lightning.
  • WHERE TO FIND: Chance of Precipitation and Chance of Wetting Rain from Fire Weather Planning Forecast, Spot Weather Forecast, and Fire Weather Dashboard.

References:

Category
Weather - Fire Behavior

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Call for Nominations: Paul Gleason Lead by Example Award

Date: December 11, 2025
Questions? Please contact:
 Leadership Committee 

Do you know someone working in wildland fire who strives to make positive change and is undeterred by obstacles or setbacks? Now is your chance to give that person the acknowledgment they deserve by nominating them for a Paul Gleason Lead by Example Award.

This award, is presented by the NWCG Leadership Committee to remember Paul Gleason's contributions to the wildland fire community and to recognize individuals or groups that exhibit the same spirit and dedication to leadership – those who lead by example.

Nominations can be submitted via email with an attached Lead by Example Form to BLM_FA_Leadership_Feedback@blm.gov or through the online form. 

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References:

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Paul Gleason Lead by Example Award Nomination Form 2025 

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Please contact: NWCG Audiovisual Specialist

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Later this month, NWCG will release a compelling video that brings the Ransom Road Fire to life through firsthand accounts, official reports, and animated maps. Rob Lee, second on site during the deployment, shares his powerful recollections of that day. 

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The campaign is structured into four quarters and may be completed at any time between October 1, 2025 -December 31, 2026. Leadership levels will be released quarterly.

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For more information about leadership development and available courses, visit the Leadership Committee Web Portal.

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