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Firefighter Math: 8.8 Probability and Number of Ignitions

Probability is the chance that an event will happen and is expressed in terms of percent, or per 100. For example, if there is a 40 percent chance of a spot fire starting, that means that out of 100 glowing embers that fly off, 40 embers will likely start spot fires, and 60 will not. Percent is calculated by changing the percent into a fraction by dividing by 100, then multiplying by the total number of possible situations.

Example 1 - The probability of ignition is 80 percent. How many ignitions are likely to occur if 90 glowing firebrands land on receptive fuel?

Step 1. Change 80 percent to a fraction, 80/100 and then into a decimal. 80/100 = 0.80

Step 2. Multiply by the total number of situations, in this case glowing firebrands. 0.8 × 90 = 72
 

Expect 72 ignitions out of 90 glowing firebrands

NWCG Latest Announcements

2026 Week of Remembrance

Date:  June 30, 2026
Questions? 
Please contact: 6 Minutes for Safety Subcommittee

As we approach the 2026 Week of Remembrance (WOR), June 30–July 6, we dedicate this time to reflect on past incidents from 2016 and honor the fallen through learning. Since its inception in 2014, WOR has honored wildland firefighters who made the ultimate sacrifice while encouraging critical discussions that reinforce lessons learned.

Throughout the week, we encourage thoughtful and generative conversations that promote a culture of continuous learning and safety.

References:

2026 Week of Remembrance: Letter to Leadership

Wildland Fire Lessons Learned Center

RMC Memorandum 26-02: SAFENET Modernization and SafeNetX Launch

Date:  June 25, 2026
Questions? 
Please contact: Risk Management Committee

The Risk Management Committee (RMC) is pleased to announce the launch of SafeNetX, the modernized safety reporting system now available to the wildland fire community. Effective June 15, 2026, SafeNetX enables reporting of unsafe, unhealthy, near-miss, and high-risk operations across wildland fire, all-hazard incidents, training, and related work environments.

SafeNetX is the result of a multi-agency modernization effort led by RMC, which began evaluating improvements to the legacy SAFENET system in 2021. To learn more, read the full RMC memorandum in the links provided.

References:

SafeNetX

RMC Safety Memorandum 26-02: SAFENET Modernization and SafeNet X Launch

2025 Wildland Fire EMS Awards

Date:  June 12, 2026
Questions? 
Please contact: Emergency Medical Committee

The NWCG Emergency Medical Committee (EMC) announces the recipients of the 2025 Wildland Fire Emergency Medical Service (EMS) Awards. EMC annually recognizes individuals and groups who have demonstrated outstanding actions or accomplishments that are above and beyond the expectation of one’s normal mission or job duties.

Congratulations to all the awardees and nominees. Through leadership and initiative, they have made significant contributions to the safety of the wildland fire community. These awards are well deserved.

References:

2025 Wildland Fire EMS Awards

Emergency Medical Committee

Incident Position Standards and the Next Generation Position Task Book Now Available for RAMP

Date:  June 12, 2026
Questions? 
Please contact: Airtanker Base Operations Unit

NWCG is excited to announce that Incident Position Standards and the Next Generation Position Task Book are now available for Ramp Manager (RAMP).

The Performance Support Package for this position was developed as part of the Incident Performance and Training Modernization effort. These resources support trainees, qualified personnel, and evaluators in their respective roles.

Any changes to qualification pathways will take effect with the next update of the NWCG Standards for Wildland Fire Position Qualifications, PMS 310-1, scheduled for release in January 2027.

References:

NWCG Ramp Manager Position Page

National Interagency Aviation Committee