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8.8 Probability and Number of Ignitions

Probability is the chance that an event will happen and is expressed in terms of percent, or per 100. For example, if there is a 40 percent chance of a spot fire starting, that means that out of 100 glowing embers that fly off, 40 embers will likely start spot fires, and 60 will not. Percent is calculated by changing the percent into a fraction by dividing by 100, then multiplying by the total number of possible situations.

Example 1 - The probability of ignition is 80 percent. How many ignitions are likely to occur if 90 glowing firebrands land on receptive fuel?

Step 1. Change 80 percent to a fraction, 80/100 and then into a decimal. 80/100 = 0.80

Step 2. Multiply by the total number of situations, in this case glowing firebrands. 0.8 × 90 = 72
 

Expect 72 ignitions out of 90 glowing firebrands

NWCG Latest Announcements

Incident Position Standards and Next Generation Position Task Book Available for Helicopter Crewmember

Date: April 28, 2025
Questions?  Please contact:
Interagency Helicopter Operations Subcommittee

NWCG is excited to announce that the NWCG Incident Position Standards for Helicopter Crewmember, PMS 350-22, and the NWCG Position Task Book for Helicopter Crewmember (HECM), PMS 311-22, are now available.

These resources, part of the Performance Support Package developed through the Incident Performance and Training Modernization (IPTM) effort, support trainees, qualified personnel, and evaluators.

Any changes to qualification pathways will take effect with the next update of the NWCG Standards for Wildland Fire Position Qualifications, PMS 310-1.

References:

NWCG Incident Position Standards for Helicopter Crewmember, PMS 350-22

NWCG Incident Position Standards for Helicopter Crewmember, PMS 350-22

NWCG Position Task Book for Helicopter Crewmember (HECM), PMS 311-22

Updated NWCG Standards for Fire Unmanned Aircraft Systems Operations, PMS 515

Date: April 23, 2025
Questions?  Please contact:
Interagency Fire Unmanned Aircraft Systems Subcommittee

The NWCG Standards for Fire Unmanned Aircraft Systems Operations, PMS 515 standardizes processes and procedures for the interagency use of Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS), including pilot inspections and approvals. This updated publication provides the aviation community with standards to ensure UAS are used safely, effectively, and efficiently in support of fire management goals and objectives.

References:

NWCG Standards for Fire Unmanned Aircraft Systems Operations, PMS 515

NWCG National Interagency Aviation Committee

ETC Bulletin 25-001: Retrofitted Hot/Cold Beverage Kits - 2025 Field Season

Date: April 16, 2025
Questions?  Please contact:
Equipment Technology Committee

Due to spout failures and the associated risk of burn injuries, manufacturers have retrofitted the Hot/Cold Beverage Kits using a heat-shrinking band to secure the black spout at the insertion site. The updated kits feature a fluorescent label on each full kit assembly for easy identification. Catering units are encouraged to confirm the clear heat-shrinking bands are intact around each spout before filling.

ETC Bulletin 24-001 regarding Hot/Cold Beverage Kits has been archived and replaced by ETC Bulletin 25-001 for the 2025 season.

References:

NWCG Alerts

ETC-EB-25-001 Retrofitted Hot/Cold Beverage Kits

NWCG Standards for Wildland Fire Chainsaw Operations, PMS 212, and Next Generation Position Task Book for Basic Faller Are Now Available

Date: April 14, 2025
Questions?  Please contact:
Hazard Tree and Tree Felling Subcommittee

The updated NWCG Standards for Wildland Fire Chainsaw Operations, PMS 212, and NWCG Position Task Book for Basic Faller (FAL3), PMS 311-19 are now available.

The NWCG Standards for Wildland Fire Chainsaw Operations, PMS 212 includes position standards designed to be used in conjunction with the Next Generation Position Task Book (Next Gen PTB). The Next Gen PTB for Basic Faller (FAL3) includes an evaluation guide with suggested rating elements to consider when assessing trainees.

References:

NWCG Standards For Wildland Fire Chainsaw Operations, PMS 212

NWCG Position Task Book for Basic Faller (FAL3), PMS 311-119

NWCG Basic Faller (FAL3)