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Firefighter Math: 8.8 Probability and Number of Ignitions

Probability is the chance that an event will happen and is expressed in terms of percent, or per 100. For example, if there is a 40 percent chance of a spot fire starting, that means that out of 100 glowing embers that fly off, 40 embers will likely start spot fires, and 60 will not. Percent is calculated by changing the percent into a fraction by dividing by 100, then multiplying by the total number of possible situations.

Example 1 - The probability of ignition is 80 percent. How many ignitions are likely to occur if 90 glowing firebrands land on receptive fuel?

Step 1. Change 80 percent to a fraction, 80/100 and then into a decimal. 80/100 = 0.80

Step 2. Multiply by the total number of situations, in this case glowing firebrands. 0.8 × 90 = 72
 

Expect 72 ignitions out of 90 glowing firebrands

NWCG Latest Announcements

Intermediate Faller (FAL2) Position Task Book Update

Date:  July 24, 2026
Questions? 
Please contact: Tree Felling Subcommittee

NWCG Operations Management Committee (OMC) has issued an update to the NWCG Position Task Book for Intermediate Faller (FAL2), PMS 311-91. To ensure clarity for both trainees and evaluators, the updated FAL2 Position Task Book (PTB) explicitly states who is authorized to sign off on your tasks:

“Evaluators must be qualified as a FAL2, or an Advanced Faller (FAL1).”

If you are currently working out of a previously published version of the FAL2 PTB, you do not need to restart. However, OMC highly encourages you to take the following step to prevent any confusion in the field:

  • Print and replace the updated evaluator information page (page 2) in your current physical PTB.

References:

Intermediate Faller (FAL2) Position Page

RMC Memo 26-01: Transition Plan for Implementing Updates to Intermediate Faller (FAL2) Position Qualifications

NWCG Position Task Book for Intermediate Faller (FAL2), PMS 311-91

Equipment Advisory 26-001: Potential Front Driveline Joint Failure on 2018 and Earlier Ram Pickups

Date:  July 10, 2026
Questions? 
Please contact: Equipment and Technology Subcommittee

The Logistics/Equipment Management Committee (LMC) has released Equipment Advisory 26-001: Potential Front Driveline Joint Failure on 2018 and Earlier Ram Pickups. This advisory highlights multiple U.S. Forest Service regions reporting front driveline joint failure incidents.

This advisory recommends firefighters and fire managers to: 

  • Follow all Ram-issued inspection, maintenance, and service guidance for front driveline joints. 
  • Consider installing a driveline loop. 
  • Coordinate with fleet managers and service providers to determine the most appropriate driveline loop kit for each pickup.

For further details, please refer to the complete advisory.

References:

Equipment Advisory 26-001: Potential Front Driveline Joint Failure on 2018 and Earlier Ram Pickups

Technical Service Bulletin: 03-002-21

NEW! NWCG Standard Operating Procedures, PMS 900

Date:  July 9, 2026
Questions? 
Please contact: NWCG Staff

NWCG is excited to announce the publication of the NWCG Standard Operating Procedures, PMS 900.

The new publication establishes general, consistent, and uniform standards for conducting business with the National Wildfire Coordinating Group.

References:

NWCG Standard Operating Procedures, PMS 900

Quarter Four Materials for the 2025-2026 Wildland Fire Leadership Campaign Now Available

Date:  July 8, 2026
Questions? 
Please contact: Leadership Development Subcommittee

NWCG is excited to announce that Fourth Quarter materials for the 2025/2026 Wildland Fire Leadership Campaign are now available. This annual initiative offers all students of leadership and wildland fire management an opportunity to engage with essential leadership skills and knowledge needed to lead effectively in dynamic environments.

Quarter Four materials focus on Leadership Level 4: Leader of Leaders (Provide Direction). Leadership Level 4 is where you are setting the conditions for others to do things well, even when you are not present. This quarter focuses on equipping experienced leaders with skills to provide direction, build trust across teams, and foster strong decision making. 

References:

2025/2026 NWCG Leadership Campaign - Leadership Levels

Wildland Fire Leadership Development Program

Leadership Development Subcommittee